NOTE: Read below for the full memo and context. Here’s the most salient new info, based on polling of Providence, Cranston, and Warwick:

The most recent numbers from those three communities show Magaziner down to 30.0% and Segal up to 16.5% – a gap of only 13.5% – and with a plurality of 34.6% of voters remaining undecided. All candidates besides Segal and Magaziner are in the single digits in the region. Segal has taken the lead within Providence, 26.4%-18.1%.

9/6/22

Memo: David Segal Gaining Ground in RI-2

From: Connection Strategies

To: Interested Parties

Context:

The Democratic primary in Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District has been a waiting game for some kind of movement in the polls. Treasurer Seth Magaziner has held a lead over all the other candidates since the beginning of the race, yet has made essentially no gains the entire time – a consistent sign that the primary voters are not sold on him, even though they know him the best.

In March, we conducted our benchmark poll which showed Magaziner at 33.6% with 49.0% undecided and each other candidate at that time in single digits. (Segal was at 3.6% at that time.)

We did our first track in May and Magaziner was at 32.8% with Segal in second place with 8.4%. Still 43.5% were undecided at that time.

Our August 4th numbers showed some movement for Magaziner (up to 38.6%) and Segal had moved up to 9.8%. Still, 34.2% were undecided and much of Magaziner’s lead was driven by voters more familiar with him than the other candidates. As an example of this, among respondents who knew the names of the top four candidates, Magaziner was slightly lower (34.0%) and Segal was a stronger second place at 13.6%. Among the small number of respondents who knew enough to rate the top four candidates at that time, Segal only trailed Magaziner by 5.7%.

Magaziner has led throughout the campaign, but most voters have been open to someone else. The question the entire time has been whether another candidate would emerge as the clear challenger, and our recent polling of the three largest communities suggests that is indeed happening.

Current Numbers:

This weekend we ran numbers in the three largest communities – Providence, Warwick, and Cranston – to see if any movement had occurred. Looking at just those same three communities from our August 4th track, Magaziner had been at 33.9% with Segal at 8.9% – a gap of 25.0% with 36.1% still undecided.

The most recent numbers from those three communities show Magaziner down to 30.0% and Segal up to 16.5% – a gap of only 13.5% – and with a plurality of 34.6% of voters remaining undecided. All candidates besides Segal and Magaziner are in the single digits in the region. Segal has taken the lead within Providence, 26.4%-18.1%.

What we have observed in this, and in other recent/ongoing primaries in Rhode Island and across the country, is that voters are taking their time making up their minds, and so we are just now seeing the first glimpse of final alignments. The fact that Segal has narrowed the gap between himself and Magaziner by nearly half, with undecided numbers still representing more than one-third of the electorate, suggests that the race is certainly not over.

Segal is being outspent several fold by Magaziner and independent expenditures that are backing him, and does not have a traditional television ad buy. (He is also being outspent by Morgenthau.) But he has run the most robust mail and field programs in this race — and has a substantial ad presence on social media and streaming services. The theme of his campaign — pushing back against corporate special interests and political corruption, so we can make progress on the major issues — resonates across ideologies. Additionally, over the course of voter contact efforts in recent days the campaign has heard many people say that his performance in recent debates helped drive their decisions to vote for him.

One final note on these numbers – it is worth noting that Magaziner’s support marginally dropped, as did the numbers for two of the other candidates. (Morgenthau’s numbers rose slightly, from 4.4% to 5.3%.) Segal is gaining not only as undecided numbers trend downward, but also as most other candidates are marginally slipping. If that trend continues, this election is far tighter than the punditry has generally declared.